Subseasonal forecast

Valid from   May 13-June 2, 2024

(4 weeks)

General comment:

The second half of May is expected to be rainy in the Pacific, mainly the regions with the most rainfall will be the South and Central Pacific; On the other hand, the rainy season will be established in the North Pacific and Northern Zone between May 13 and 20. In the Caribbean and Northern Zone, less intense rains than normal will continue.

 

Fig. 1. Weekly precipitation forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.

 

1.Forecast from may 13-19, 2024

 

Very weak trade winds in the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country. Rainy conditions are expected in the Central and South Pacific (accumulated greater than 120 mm in a week) and little rainfall throughout the Caribbean (accumulated between 30-60 mm in the period). For this week the rainy season will be established in the North Pacific and in the Northern Zone (although in the latter less rain than normal is expected)

 

Probability of extreme: low (around 50%)
Forecast uncertainty: low

2. Forecast from may 20-27, 2024

Very weak trade winds and the Intertropical Convergence Zone continues over the country. Normal rainy conditions are expected throughout the Caribbean and Central Valley (accumulated between 50-80 mm weekly) and rainy in the Central and South Pacific. For this week the rainy season will be established in the North Pacific and in the Northern Zone (although in the latter less rain than normal is expected)

Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium

3. Forecast from may 27-June 2, 2024

 

The trade winds will continue to be weak and the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country, normal seasonal rains are also expected in most of the national territory (the normal weekly accumulations range between 80 and 120 mm in the Central and South Pacific, between 30 -50 mm in the Caribbean and Central Valley).

 

Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium

4. Forecast from  june 3-9, 2024

Very weak trade winds and the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is expected to favor rainy conditions throughout the Pacific and Central Valley.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)
Prognosis uncertainty: high

 

 

Forecast of extreme events from   May 13-27, 2024

 

The proximity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone will be favoring extreme precipitation conditions in the South Pacific region during the period from May 6 to 14. The probability of occurrence of said extreme event is greater than 65%. (Normal weekly rainfall accumulations are between 80-120 mm in the South Pacific, so it is likely that these weekly amounts will be exceeded reaching 200 mm or more in 7 days).

Fig. 2. Forecast of extreme events for the next 2 weeks (training areas).

 

 

Coordinación: Daniel Poleo
Mapas: Nury Sanabria Valverde
Unidad de aplicaciones climáticas
Departamento de Desarrollo/IMN