Numerical weather models

Numerical Weather Forecasts

A numerical model is a set of mathematical expressions describing the behavior of a physical and chemical system. These equations are solved in a computational environment. These mathematical equations are based on scientific knowledge of the behavior of the atmosphere and its interactions with the environment that surrounds it, both dynamic and thermodynamic.
The vast amount of actual data that feed make these, running their computer modules, make a weather forecasting in its atmospheric variables for several days in the future, so it is a fundamental input to consider the weather forecast.

Importantly, all of the numerical modeling results have an uncertainty inherent when compared with the actual behavior of atmospheric variables.

Model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF, acronym in English)

The numerical model WRF is designed both to investigate the atmosphere as well for the weather forecast. The IMN started the first tests and simulations in 2012, later simulations of greater spatial and temporal resolution were conducted in 2013 and from then, this system has been a fundamental tool for technical support to carry out the daily weather forecast.

Furthermore, the results of the WRF are used in different international airports in the country to meet the weather forecast for domestic and international air carriers.

Active numerical weather forecasts


  WRF (10 KM)
  WRF LONG-TERM (20 KM)

Nota:  Los modelos numéricos siempre están asociados a algún tipo de incertidumbre, física, dinámica,  termodinámica y estadística y no representa un pronóstico del tiempo ni tampoco algun tipo de tendencia, para ello se necesita el juicio de experto de un(a) Meteorólogo(a). Por lo tanto, el Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN) no se hace responsable por el uso de ninguno de dichos productos. Esta información es únicamente informativa y para el uso de expertos en Meteorología.