Subseasonal forecast

Valid from    July 15 to august 11, 2024

(4 weeks)

General comment:

The second fortnight (from July 12) of July will see an increase in the trade winds as a result of the presence of Saharan dust masses and the increase in atmospheric pressure, this will bring less rain in the Central Valley and the Pacific will begin to the canicular period (decrease in rain during July).

 
Pronóstico Estacional

Fig. 1. Weekly precipitation forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.

 

1.Forecast from  july 15-21, 2024

 

This week rains will decrease significantly in most of the country, however, this decrease is normal for the season; In the Central Valley there will be less rain compared to previous weeks (weekly accumulations between 30-50 mm). In the Caribbean it will be normal (accumulated less than 60 mm weekly). Normal rains in the South Pacific

 

Probability of extreme: low (around 30%)
Forecast uncertainty: low


2. Forecast from  july 22-28, 2024


This week rains will decrease significantly in most of the country, however, this decrease is normal for the season; In the Central Valley there will be less rain compared to previous weeks (weekly accumulations between 30-50 mm). In the Caribbean it will be normal (accumulated less than 60 mm weekly). Normal rains in the South Pacific


Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium


3. Forecast from  july 29 to august 4, 2024

 

This week the conditions of little rainfall will continue, there is a high possibility of the presence of dust masses from the Sahara, so moderate trade winds and typical July conditions are expected in the Pacific and Central Valley (moderate wind and little rain), accumulated weekly between 30-60mm. The Caribbean will continue with less rain than normal (less than 60 mm weekly). Normal rains in the South Pacific

 

Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium


4. Forecast from  august 5-11, 2024

Very weak trade winds and the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is expected to favor rainy conditions throughout the Pacific and Central Valley.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)
Prognosis uncertainty: high

 

 

Forecast of extreme events from    July 8-21, 2024

This week the conditions of little rainfall will continue, there is a high possibility of the presence of dust masses from the Sahara, so moderate trade winds and typical July conditions are expected in the Pacific and Central Valley (moderate wind and little rain), accumulated weekly between 30-60mm. The Caribbean will continue with less rain than normal (less than 60 mm per week)

Fig. 2. Forecast of extreme events for the next 2 weeks (training areas).


 

 

Coordinación: Daniel Poleo
Mapas: Nury Sanabria Valverde
Unidad de aplicaciones climáticas
Departamento de Desarrollo/IMN