Subseasonal forecast

Valid from   March 4-31, 2024

(4 weeks)

General comment:

During this period there will be much less windy conditions than in the previous week, which will mainly favor less cloudiness, very warm conditions in the Pacific and very little precipitation nationwide in this period. A large mass of dry air will be predominant over the region for most of the period.

 

Pronóstico Estacional

Fig. 1. Weekly precipitation forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.

 

1.Forecast from march 5 to 10, 2024

 

 

This week the rainy conditions of the previous week in the Caribbean will decrease, although there will be the influence of moderate trade winds and intermittent rains that favor normal rainfall accumulations for the season in the mountainous Caribbean. It will continue to be drier than normal, dry in the Pacific and Central Valley and warm with temperatures between 0.5 and 1°C higher than normal.l.

 


Probability of extreme: moderate (60% strong winds in the mountains)
Forecast uncertainty: low


2. Forecast from march 11 to 17, 2024


A significant decrease in the trade winds will continue. Much less rainy conditions than normal throughout the Caribbean and Northern Zone; in the Central and South Pacific showers during the afternoon. Temperatures throughout the country will remain between 1 to 2°C above normal, particularly in the North Pacific and Northern Zone.


Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium


3. Forecast from march 18 to 24, 2024


Humid conditions will increase, with little wind and with them normal rains throughout the North Zone and Central and South Pacific. Warm temperatures of up to 2°C higher than the average throughout the country will prevail.


Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium


4. Forecast from march 25 to 31, 2024

 

Normal conditions will prevail throughout the national territory, with the exception of the Caribbean, which will remain dry, with less rain than normal. The predominant condition will be high temperatures throughout the country.


Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)
Prognosis uncertainty: high

 

 

Forecast of extreme events from  March 4-17, 2024

 

 

During this period, a cold thrust is expected to be affected, this will significantly increase the trade winds. A higher moisture content will also favor more rains in the mountainous sector of the Caribbean particularly at the beginning of the week, then a drier air mass will inhibit the rains; On the other hand, intense wind gusts between 70-95 km/h are expected, being even higher in some sectors such as the Guanacaste mountain range and the Central mountain range.


Fig. 2. Forecast of extreme events for the next 2 weeks (training areas).


 

 

Coordinación: Daniel Poleo
Mapas: Nury Sanabria Valverde
Unidad de aplicaciones climáticas
Departamento de Desarrollo/IMN