Subseasonal forecast

Valid from  May 5-jun 1 , 2025

(4 weeks)

General comment:

April begins with warmer conditions and less rain across most of the country. The second week of April will see the sun's rays shining directly across the country, promoting very high temperatures. Light winds and light rain are expected in the Caribbean.

Fig. 1. Weekly precipitation forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.

 

1.Forecast from  may 5-11, 2025

Early April will be very warm across the country, with further decreases in humidity, resulting in less rainfall than normal in the Pacific. The Caribbean and Northern Zone will experience normal rainfall conditions. (accumulations of 15-30 mm in the Caribbean, less than 30 mm in the Pacific during the week)

Probability of extreme: low (around 20%)
Forecast uncertainty: low

2.Forecast from may 12-18, 2025

This week, moisture content will decrease further, with the presence of the zenithal sun (perpendicular sun rays over the national territory, favoring high temperatures). Clear conditions will favor warmer-than-normal temperatures. The Pacific will be drier than normal, while the rest of the country will have normal conditions.

Probability of extreme event:  low (around 20%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium

3. Forecast from  may 19-25, 2025

This week, humidity levels will remain low, with the sun shining brightly in the center and north of the country. Clear conditions will favor warmer-than-normal temperatures. The Pacific will be drier than normal, while the rest of the country will experience normal conditions.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium

4. Forecast from  may 26-jun 1, 2025

Very weak trade winds and the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is expected to favor rainy conditions throughout the Pacific and Central Valley.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 20%)
Prognosis uncertainty: high

Forecast of extreme events from may 5-11, 2024

Moderate floods and frontal systems continue around the region, which makes the rainy conditions in the Pacific region unfavorable. Although there will be rainy conditions in the Caribbean these will be normal for the season.

Fig. 2. Forecast of extreme events for the next 2 weeks (training areas).

 

 

Forecaster: Daniel Poleo
Maps: Nury Sanabria Valverde
Unidad de aplicaciones climáticas
Departamento de Desarrollo/IMN