Subseasonal forecast

Valid from   April 29-May 27, 2024

(4 weeks)

General comment:

May will be a month where the rainy season will be established in the Pacific. There is a high probability that the establishment of the rainy season in the Central Pacific will gradually continue and consolidation in the South from April 29 and in the Central Valley from April 29. May 6th. In the Caribbean and Northern Zone there will be very little rainfall during this period

 

Fig. 1. Weekly precipitation forecast by region for the next 4 weeks.

 

1.Forecast from april  29  to may 5, 2024

 

Very warm temperatures will be occurring throughout the country. In this period, it is expected that the rainy season will be established in the Central Pacific and will be consolidated in the South Pacific, where there will be normal rainfall for the season (weekly accumulations that exceed 60 mm in the Central and 100 mm in the South Pacific). . The Caribbean and Northern Zone will have very dry conditions this week. Central Valley will have isolated rains and the North Pacific will have rainfall on the Nicoya peninsula.

 

Probability of extreme: low (around 50%)
Forecast uncertainty: low

2. Forecast from may 5-12, 2024

It is expected that the Intertropical Convergence Zone will begin to be closer to the national territory, the rainy season is expected to be established in the Central Valley, there will be more frequent downpours than normal in the South Pacific region (weekly rainfall accumulations over 120 mm) and normal in the Central Pacific (80 mm weekly). The entire Caribbean and North with less rain than normal.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium

3. Forecast from may 13-20, 2024

 

Very weak trade winds and the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is expected to favor normal rain conditions throughout the Pacific and Central Valley.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 30%)
Prognosis uncertainty: medium

4. Forecast from may 21-27, 2024

Very weak trade winds and the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the country. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is expected to favor rainy conditions throughout the Pacific and Central Valley.

Probability of extreme event: low (around 10%)
Prognosis uncertainty: high

 

 

Forecast of extreme events from  April  29- May 27, 2024

 

During this period, conditions of extreme events of frontal systems, extreme rains or tropical cyclones are not expected in the region.

Fig. 2. Forecast of extreme events for the next 2 weeks (training areas).

 

 

Coordinación: Daniel Poleo
Mapas: Nury Sanabria Valverde
Unidad de aplicaciones climáticas
Departamento de Desarrollo/IMN