Informative Meteorological Warning

Disturbance with cyclonic potential in the Caribbean Sea continues

November 2, 2023

11:00 am

Diagnosis: A low pressure system in the center of the Caribbean Sea has decreased its probability of developing into a tropical cyclone. Currently it has 20% at 48 hours and 20% at seven days. This disturbance is moving toward the western Caribbean Sea with disorganized storms and precipitation.

Forecast: Numerical models continue to show significant uncertainty, however, it is estimated that its trajectory will continue westward, approaching the coasts of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica this weekend.

With this projection, a greater activation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and also an induced flow of constant humidity from the Pacific Ocean towards the national territory would be generated, starting on Friday night. Given these conditions, a strengthening of rains is expected in the country for this weekend, with particular emphasis on the regions of the Central and South Pacific.

The IMN maintains strict uninterrupted surveillance and will immediately update information on the possible formation of this phenomenon and its possible effects in Costa Rica.

Warning: Special attention in the Pacific regions and mountainous areas of the country because they are the areas where the heaviest rains are expected.

Due to the above, the IMN recommends:

Be attentive to the issuance of informative weather warnings that are published in:

• Twitter: @IMNCR
• Facebook: National Meteorological Institute
• WEBSITE: www.imn.ac.cr

Next notice: tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.

Paulo Solano
Meteorologist
DMSA-IMN